Research

Research Focus

Our Research Areas

Our research spans a broad spectrum of statistical and actuarial disciplines, united by the goal of advancing quantitative risk assessment methodologies.

Climate Risk Modelling

Developing spatial and temporal models for extreme weather events, seasonal forecasting, and climate-resilient insurance pricing across African regions. This includes heatwaves, drought, and flood risk assessment.

Machine Learning & AI

Applying deep learning, neural networks, and ensemble methods to insurance and health datasets for improved prediction and risk classification. We explore supervised and unsupervised learning for actuarial applications.

Health & Survival Analysis

Studying mortality trends, infectious disease dynamics, and longevity risk using survival analysis and machine learning methods. This includes under-five mortality, maternal health, and Bayesian mortality projections.

Spatial Statistics

Using geostatistical methods, kriging, and spatial copula frameworks for environmental monitoring, regional risk mapping, and wastewater surveillance. This includes Bayesian spatial modelling for public health and insurance.

Data Visualisation

Developing multivariate visualisation techniques including biplots, principal surfaces, and interactive dashboards. This includes RShiny applications and methods for exploring high-dimensional actuarial data.

Risk & Insurance Analytics

Developing pricing, reserving, and capital assessment models for general and life insurance. This includes catastrophe modelling, dependence structures, and stochastic simulations for portfolio risk.

Current Work

Projects in Progress

The lab is establishing its research programme. Current student projects are underway, with outputs expected in the coming years.

Climate Risk and Insurance Pricing

Odey Mofokeng (MSc Statistics) is developing Bayesian spatial copula frameworks for insurance pricing in KwaZulu-Natal, examining flood and drought risk through geostatistical methods.

Climate Exposure and Health Risk

Aphiwe Ngcobo (Honours Statistics) is examining how extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall affect vulnerable populations in Gauteng, combining climate data with public health analysis.

Developing Collaborations

We are building partnerships with industry and academic institutions to expand our research capacity and create opportunities for future publications and conference presentations.